Why the Unemployment Numbers Are Better Than You Think

Last Tuesday's election, by most accounts, was a referendum on the state of the economy. The GOP took back the House and nearly regained the Senate by continually highlighting the lack of sustained economic progress under the policies enacted by President Obama and the Democratically controlled House and Senate. And despite lots of other economic signs heading in the right direction (ie: The Dow is back to pre-Wall Street crash highs), the only number anyone cares about is unemployment.

It's obviously difficult to talk about the economy improving when 9.6% of Americans aren't working, but there have been some positive trends for anyone willing to look at the numbers bit deeper:

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US President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama are led on a tour by Grand Imam Ali Mustafa Yaqub (not pictured) at the Istiqlal Mosque in Jakarta on November 10, 2010. The much-anticipated visit to the Istiqlal Mosque and speech at the University of Indonesia were the last stops on Obama's twice-postponed visit to Indonesia.

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Recent Obama Photos

President Barack Obama addresses troops at a Veteran's Day event at US Army Garrison Yongsan in Seoul on November 11, 2010 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. Obama will join G20 leaders later in the day in what promises to be a stormy summit on November 11-12 devoted to recalibrating huge distortions in the world economy.

Recent Obama Photos

President Barack Obama (L) greets troops after addressing them at a Veteran's Day event at US Army Garrison Yongsan in Seoul on November 11, 2010 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. Obama will join G20 leaders later in the day in what promises to be a stormy summit on November 11-12 devoted to recalibrating huge distortions in the world economy.

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First Lady Michelle Obama (L) shares a laugh with Bettina Wulff, the wife of German President Christian Wulff, during a visit at the US military airbase in Ramstein, soutwestern Germany, on Veterans Day, on November 11, 2010. Michelle Obama is on a short one-day-visit in Germany.

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South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, center, and his wife Kim Yoon-ok, left, welcome US President Barack Obama for a reception at the G-20 summit in Seoul Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010 .

Recent Obama Photos

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, center, and his wife Kim Yoon-ok, right, reposition President Barack Obama for a photo for the official arrival and reception at the G-20 summit in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010.

Recent Obama Photos

In this handout provided by the South Korean Presidential House, U.S. President Barack Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak attend a joint press conference after their summit meeting on November 11, 2010 in Seoul, South Korea. World leaders converged on Seoul for the fifth meeting of the G20 group of nations to discuss the global financial system and world economy. South Korea is the first non G-8 country to host the G-20 summit.

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This handout taken on November 11, 2010 and made available by the Seoul G20 Media Pool shows US President Barack Obama (R) listening to South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak (C) during the G20 Working Dinner at the National Museum of Korea in Seoul. Local beef and halibut from the Yellow Sea were on the menu as world leaders opened their G20 summit talks over a welcome dinner at South Korea's national museum.

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President Barack Obama meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010.

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First lady Michelle Obama, left, toasts former Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, during a state dinner at the Istana Negara in Jakarta, Indonesia, Tuesday, Nov. 9, 2010.

Recent Obama Photos

As President Obama said himself, that was the message in Friday's Labor Department report, which showed that the United States economy added 151,000 jobs in October. Nearly 15 million people are still out of work, and the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 9.6 percent.

In addition to the October gains detailed in the Labor Department's monthly employment report, the government also revised estimates of job growth in August and September to significantly higher levels. The September private-sector job gain was adjusted from 64,000 to 107,000. The August figure was upped from 93,000 to 143,000. Obama seized on the new numbers to note that the economy has now added over 100,000 private-sector jobs for the fourth month running and has seen 1.1 million new private-sector jobs since January.

None of the increase in jobs last month came from the government sector, where employment was essentially flat. That signaled two different trends at work. On one hand, state and local governments laid off fewer workers than they had been in recent months, in part because Congress approved money this summer to prevent teacher layoffs and in part because many of the big state and local layoffs have already occurred.

The job gains were concentrated in the private sector, especially in service industries. Temporary help firms added 35,000 positions, health-care employers added 24,000, and the retail sector added 28,000 jobs.

Until there are roughly 300,000 new jobs created a month, the jobless rate won't go down. But we're on the right track overall here. The private sector has added jobs each of the past 10 months, with the public sector largely contributing to the overall net loss. Still, you could argue that without stimulus funds to help tide over state budgets, the numbers there could have been far worse.

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We shouldn't pretend that this is reason to celebrate. Even the president himself tempers these positive developments by reflecting on the nearly 1 in 10 Americans who still don't have a job. But it's nonetheless trending in the right direction. The president inherited an economy that was shedding about 700,000 jobs a month, and an unemployment rate that was already 7.6% and climbing rapidly.

Rome wasn't built in a day, nor will the U.S. economy be turned around in one.

Jay Anderson is a freelance writer from Washington, DC, whose work has been featured in the Washington Post and on NPR. When he's not busy talking smack here, he runs the award-winning blog AverageBro.com. Follow him via Twitter @AverageBro.